Champions League betting strategies for the 16th round

If you are someone who thinks they can predict the outcomes of a game, here are some accurate tips to bet on the Champions League.

Manchester City in a file photo; Credit: Twitter@ManCity
By Rohit Kohli | Feb 19, 2024 | 4 Min Read follow icon Follow Us

The UEFA Champions League is back this week! The knockout stages are kicking off after a two-month break since the group stage. Sixteen teams are still in the running, and they’ll be playing the first leg of the round of 16 over the next two weeks. Big clubs like Man City, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, and Arsenal are facing off against some of Europe’s most exciting underdogs, such as Real Sociedad, PSV, and Borussia Dortmund. And, if you are someone who thinks they can predict the outcomes of a game, here are some accurate tips to bet on the Champions League.

We’ve got some exciting matchups in the first leg of the round of 16: PSV Eindhoven from the Dutch Eredivisie are hosting Dortmund from the Bundesliga; Serie A’s Inter Milan are hosting La Liga’s Atletico Madrid; Portuguese Primeira Liga’s F.C. Porto are hosting Arsenal from the Premier League; and Serie A’s Napoli are hosting La Liga’s F.C. Barcelona.

Find out how to make more money betting on the UCL with our top Champions League betting strategies and tips!

How does the Champions League work

The Champions League really gets going in the group stage, which comes before the qualifying rounds. There are eight groups of four teams each, making a total of 32 teams.

All the teams are divided into four pots based on their seeding. Teams from the same pot can’t play against each other, and teams from the same country can’t play against each other in the group stage. This makes the draw pretty tricky, especially for countries like England that have four teams spread across different pots.

After the draw, teams in each group play against each other both at home and away. Teams can get:

  • Three points for a win 
  • One point for a draw 
  • Zero points for a loss

After six games, the top two teams move on to the knockout stages. Third-place teams from all groups then go to the UEFA Europa League. The last 16 is a straight knockout, where teams play each other twice (home and away). The overall score of the two games is what counts. Away goals don’t count, and extra time and penalties will be used if needed. For the knockout stage, the draw is random, and for the first time, teams from the same nation can be drawn to play each other.

This goes from the last 16 to the semi-final. The final is just one game at a specific stadium. There won’t be any replays – a winner will be decided on the day, even if it takes extra time and penalties.

Betting on Champions League

Although the Champions League is a European event, it’s hugely popular in the US. Most big sportsbooks cover it extensively, offering various markets like moneyline, over/under, spreads, prop bets, and enhanced odds promotions.

This flexibility lets bettors pick from a bunch of different sportsbooks. The best part is, you can shop around for the best lines. If you don’t shop around, you could be making a pretty big betting mistake.

Once you’ve chosen the sportsbook, go to the ‘Soccer’ section. Most sites have a special Champions League betting area, where you can find a bunch of games happening over several game weeks.

Because the tournament is so popular, some sites offer UCL promotions like better lines or boosted odds. When this happens, the lines are usually some of the best around. This means there are good chances for value betting.

Best betting strategies for the Champions League

To give you the best Champions League betting tips, we need to focus on the best ways to make money from betting on the competition.

Stay up to date with the news

One of the main Champions League betting tips is about team news – it’s probably more important for this competition than for other leagues. The reason is that teams are managed in the competition to make sure they have the best chance of moving forward, so games are usually played with the best starting 11.

Team news for games comes out one hour before kickoff. We recommend waiting until this time to make any match bets, so you can see both starting lineups and get a better idea of how games might go.

Keep the team’s form in mind

Usually, team form and head-to-head data are important when looking into Champions League betting tips. But because teams might not have much data on both, it’s harder to use in the UCL.

Still, you should try to use team form data. Look at how they’ve played in past group games and then look at their league and domestic cup form. The latter is important because the Champions League is basically a bunch of cup games spread out over the season. But it’s also imperative to analyze the quality of the opposition.

Home advantage can make a huge difference

Home advantage can be a big deal in soccer, no matter what the competition. But in the Champions League, it’s even more important. All the teams that qualify are used to winning, and most have really good home records. For the bigger teams, this makes playing away from home even harder than usual. 

You can find good deals by betting against teams that are priced lower just because they’re playing at home. Betting against overpriced home teams can be a smart move.