Belmont Stakes: Key Trends To Consider Before Making A Bet

It will be a hugely popular race from a betting perspective, but what are some of the standout trends that should be followed before making a wager on the Belmont Stakes in 2023?

Mike Lizzi 2018
By Karthik Raman | May 23, 2023 | 3 Min Read follow icon Follow Us

The Triple Crown campaign is nearing its conclusion, with the Belmont Stakes rounding off the series for horses aged three in early June. 

It will be a testing race for the field, as they will compete over 1 ½ miles for the first time in their career, meaning that we could have a clearer picture with the Breeders’ Cup Classic in mind after the race at Belmont Park. Check the odds for Belmont here: 

It will be a hugely popular race from a betting perspective, but what are some of the standout trends that should be followed before making a wager on the Belmont Stakes in 2023?

Preakness Stakes Runners

A lot is made of the two-week turnaround between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, with many opting to avoid betting on the Derby runners with limited time to recover. However, that is also a trend to continue to follow when it comes to Preakness runners competing in the Belmont Stakes. 

This is mirrored by the fact that only two previous Belmont Stakes winners have previous competed in the Preakness Stakes, and those were Triple Crown heroes Justify and American Pharoah. Early Voting won the Preakness last year, and bypassed the Belmont Stakes before finishing dead last in both the G2 Jim Dandy and G1 Travers. The most recent runner to target the Belmont after winning the Preakness was Rombauer, but he could only finish third. 

Extended Break

One of the key factors to consider is the rest period of the horses involved in the Belmont Stakes. This is shown by the fact that 12 of the last 15 horses to finish in the money in the Belmont Stakes had enjoyed at least four weeks of race. Interesting nine of the 12 places were taken by runners that competed in the Derby, with the only runners that competed in the Preakness prior coming in the forms of Justify, American Pharoah, and Lani. 

Therefore, it could be encouraged to examine runners that competed in the Derby, but not in the Preakness Stakes. That could offer up potential value when looking to side with runners such as Forte, Angel of Empire, and Kingsbarns. 

Belmont Experience

Course form counts for a lot when it comes to the Belmont Stakes. That is evident from the fact that eleven of the previous 22 winners of the final Triple Crown race have prior experience at Belmont Park. But, one race that it may be important to overlook is the Peter Pan Stakes. This is known as the traditional prep for the final Triple Crown race, but only two horses since 1987 have landed both. 

We The People won the Peter Pan by a staggering ten lengths in 2022, but he could only finish fourth from eight runners in the Belmont Stakes last year. Following this trend, Arcangelo could be the runner to overlook this year, as he held off Bishops Boy to land the Peter Pan in the middle of May. That performace secured a career-high speed figure, but the trends don’t point to further success for the Jena Antonucci runner.

Favorites Record

Traditionally, the pre-race favorite has struggled in the Belmont Stakes, with only four winners being the moneyline favorite since 1996. However, this has slightly changed in recent editions, with Essential Quality and Tiz The Law both landing victory after being the top selections in the betting. 

But, last year, the favorite was We The People, who failed to finish in the money as Mo Donegal completed a one-two for Todd Pletcher alongside Nest. That favorite this year is likely to be Forte, who was forced to bypass the Kentucky Derby following vet advice.