Valtteri Bottas is currently into his fifth year in Mercedes but never has his standing in the team looked as uncertain as it does now.
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Valtteri Bottas is currently into his fifth year in Mercedes and even now, there remains amazement among a set of Formula 1 fans that he even made it this far. That’s not a knock on the Finn’s driving ability; that he had pace was evident from his days at Williams. Yet there’s also been a sense that Bottas only has a seat because he would be of no threat to Lewis Hamilton. His “new year, new Valtteri” declarations ahead of the new season became a running joke among F1 fans – mostly because his title hopes would be snuffed out early in the season itself. But it is only now that his career in F1’s most dominant current team is at a crossroads.
A mid-season seat switch at Mercedes was rumoured yet quickly shot down by Bottas. He has also gotten public backing from team principal Toto Wolff.
Yet the signs of his Mercedes career ending have been there for quite some time. And, barring a massive turnaround in 2021, it is remotely possible he could be replaced for 2022.
Realistically, 2019 and 2020 were the two seasons that gave Bottas his best chance at winning a world title. Yet both seasons saw him start well but fail to capitalise over the long run.
In 2019, Ferrari had a decent car but infighting between Charles Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel took precedence to winning races.
And while it is true that Leclerc and Vettel put in some improved performances later in the season, by then it was too late. Just as it was for Bottas.
The Finn started 2019 with a win in Australia, before Hamilton won at Bahrain and China. He then got another win at Azerbaijan. 2-2 between the Mercedes drivers with four races gone and a competitive title race seemed very much at hand.
However, that was as good as it got for Bottas. Hamilton won the next four races at Spain, Monaco, Canada and France. He then traded wins with Max Verstappen over the next four races at Austria, England, Germany and Hungary.
To make matters worse, Leclerc then took wins at Belgium and Italy before Vettel won at Singapore. Bottas’ title dash was over before it really begun, his wins in Japan and USA thereafter mere consolations.
2020 was even worse. Again, he won the season-opening Styrian GP. However, Hamilton won five of the next six races – and the only race he didn’t win was won by Verstappen.
Bottas, meanwhile, managed only one more win that year – in Russia. By that point his title hopes were again all but over.
2020 also saw a couple of freak results – Pierre Gasly’s shock win in Monza, as well as Sergio Perez’s win at the Sakhir GP. But while Perez celebrated a first race win at Sakhir, Bottas was contending with a whole different issue in the desert.
After winning the Bahrain GP in 2020, Hamilton pulled out of the Sakhir GP that was set to happen a week later due to contracting coronavirus. His replacement in the team? Williams driver and Mercedes junior George Russell.
The young Brit came into the championship-winning car and proceeded to comprehensively outperform Bottas. Indeed, the only reason he was denied a win was due to a pit-stop error from Mercedes.
Russell started the race in second behind Bottas, but pulled off an excellent overtaking maneuver in the middle of the race to get into the lead.
Granted, it was a one-off performance. But Bottas being outdone by a racer earmarked for a Mercedes seat in the future was not a good look.
Indeed, the infamous duel between the two drivers at Imola this year saw many comment on the fact that Russell was on the verge of overtaking a Mercedes in a Williams – a car that, as of this writing, hasn’t won a championship point this season.
Of course, there are definitely advantages to keeping Valtteri Bottas in the team next season.
F1 is, at the end of the day, a team sport too. And Bottas has been an asset to the team, even if he hasn’t succeeded in winning the championship himself.
However, if his poor form were to continue over the next few races, he could well find himself on the wrong end of the “silly season” rumours.
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