Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes' best title bet? Focus harder on the Middle East leg of the season

The 2021 Formula 1 world driver’s championship battle has been one of the most thrilling in recent memory. What’s more, Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes are actually on the back foot for a change.

Since the start of the turbo-hybrid era in 2014, it feels as if “Mercedes dominance” can be listed as one of three life certainties. And not without good reason either. The team have won all 7 driver’s and constructor’s championships in that time.

However, things are different this time around. Mercedes are ahead in the constructor’s championship, but Hamilton trails Lewis Hamilton by 12 points in the driver’s standings.

Granted, that isn’t much of an advantage given there are still five races left. But it is rare to see the German team going into the backend of the season on the back foot like this.

At this point, the focus will undoubtedly be on how to extract maximum performance from the machinery. Yet it is also worth noting that the next two tracks could well favour their rivals.

Why are Mercedes at a disadvantage at Mexico and Brazil?

The upcoming race week will see F1 return to Mexico and then Brazil. And the reason both tracks will favour Red Bull is the high altitude of the circuits.

This is especially true in Mexico, with the Mexico City circuit set almost 2300m above sea level. At Interlagos, the circuit is just about 800m above sea level. But high altitude tracks work against the defending champions and in favour of the challengers.

It’s Race Week but make it Mexican! ??❤️ pic.twitter.com/rHAeitrRj3

— Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team (@MercedesAMGF1) November 1, 2021

The reason? The Honda engine and, more specifically, the turbo unit. The high altitude means less dense air, which also means the turbo engine needs to work harder to compensate for this by compressing the air.

Honda’s turbo is slightly smaller than the Mercedes turbo, making this hard work and air compression easier. The low air density also means that the German team’s aerodynamic efficieny is negated.

That Red Bull hold an advantage here is evident in recent results. Of the past three races, two have been won by Red Bull in 2017 and 2018. Indeed, they could have won in 2019 too if not for Verstappen taking a grid penalty.

Thus, the race is seen as one that Mercedes will most likely not be able to win. But that ramps up the pressure on Red Bull, who now see this race as a must-win to maximise gains.

Interlagos will again see Red Bull start as favourites, albeit with a lesser advantage compared to Mexico City. However, the Brazilian GP could truly go either way.

The circuit’s layout means cars will often set up in a way to compromise their speed on the straights and corners. That and unpredictable weather means this is a race that could go either way.

Last three races could be key

But, if Mercedes are to have a dash at the championship, they will need to focus harder on the last three races i.e. the Middle East leg.

F1 will finish this season with races in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi. Of these, only Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina circuit is one drivers have raced on before.

The Losail International Circuit in Qatar features plenty of medium-speed and long radius corners. History tells us that Red Bull have thrived in such an environment, which would again place them at a slight advantage.

However, the fact that it is an unknown track cannot be played down. There will be plenty of factors that teams will only be able to pick up on once they’re at the circuit, no matter how many simulator runs the drivers undertake.

The Jeddah Corniche Circuit, however, is a fast-paced street circuit that will see cars go full throttle more often than not. This will no doubt favour the Mercedes cars with their low-rake design.

Abu Dhabi has been a Mercedes stronghold for all but one year since 2014. The one year they didn’t win at the Yas Marina? 2020, when Verstappen and Red Bull outpaced them both in qualifying and the race.

That being said, the track has both a couple of long straights and slower corners. This means that, in theory at least, both Red Bull and Mercedes can do well on this circuit.

Should Mercedes focus more on last three races?

Given they expect to be on the back foot at both Mexico and Brazil, it wouldn’t be too surprising if they already are planning for the last three races.

Again, it is worth pointing out that pre-race predictions often mean nothing. A simple accident or technical failure for Red Bull might just blow the race at Mexico wide open. Equally, drivers can have off days – no matter the circuit.

But, as things stand, the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez will suit Red Bull more. Whereas Mercedes would know they stand a better chance of winning in at least two of the three final races.

Friday practice at Mexico City will give an indicator into how things might play out – both in the short and long term. Yet it isn’t a bold assumption to think that Mercedes see Mexico and Brazil as places for damage limitation i.e. get as many points as possible.