LaLiga becomes pioneer to 'goal probability' ratio in European football 

LaLiga has become pioneer to ‘goal probability’ ratio which will provide replays of its national and international broadcasts with an advanced model. This stat is obtained in 30 seconds at the frame level, almost in real time, thanks to the technological capacity provided by Microsoft Azure’s artificial intelligence and machine learning, as part of the collaborative Beyond Stats project, according to an official media release. The initiative is part of the ongoing alliance between LaLiga and Microsoft, and has the objective of bringing the performance metrics used by football clubs closer to the fans. 

Under the agreement between the two organisations, reinforced in May 2021, different projects are being developed with the aim of digitally transforming the sports and entertainment industry.

“Thanks to the strength of Microsoft Azure, we are managing to improve the experience for our fans by incorporating this model that calculates the probability of a goal being scored. The algorithms we’ve developed are based on artificial intelligence and require a very high computing power in order to work through a very large number of data points and offer these stats almost in real time,” LaLiga Tech general director Miguel Ángel Leal said. 

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“Fans increasingly want a more personalised experience and quality information that helps them to interpret and enjoy the game, something we are working on through the Beyond Stats project, both on the website and with the ‘Powered by Microsoft’ graphics shown in broadcasts. The work being carried out by our team of data scientists at LaLiga Tech, as part of our alliance with Microsoft, makes it possible to present innovations that are pioneering in the industry, such as this sophisticated Goal Probability model,” he added. 

“Microsoft’s Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence technology has facilitated this development, thanks to the analysis of historical tracking data of more than 20,000 shots obtained from some 2,000 matches. The capacity of this technology has allowed LaLiga to take another step forward, becoming the first league to bring a metric with these characteristics into its broadcasts,” Rebeca Marciel, the enterprise commercial lead at Microsoft Spain, added.

The perfected metric is based on a variety of different variables, such as the player’s line of sight, which considers the positions of the opposition players in the way of the player’s view to goal, which has a decisive impact on the difficulty and, in turn, the probability of finishing the chance. 

Other factors taken into consideration include the distance between the ball and the goalkeeper and between the ball and the goal, or the distance and angle to the nearest defender. This produces a final stat that is shown on the screen.